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18.03.2008 Good morning to you all, Regarding Merritt comments, I must say that right now there are some signals that shows that milk production in NZ is slowing down due to a draught in the principal dairy areas like for example, Waikato. Forecasts indicates that production may fall about 4% at the end of may where production season finished. This may sustain dairy prices all over the world. Here in Uruguay our feeling is that prices for SMP and WMP, will remain about US$ 3700 to 4000, having in mind the sharp decline of USD. Meanwhile farmers are investing heaviliy in aspects like : pastures, pasture irrigation and forage reserves (mainly sorghum silage as total plant and wet sorghum grain). We know that the key issue of our competitiviness are productive pastures. During the last two years, there have been a very strong investment in land, dairy cattle and pastures, from NZ investors in Uruguay. They invested around USD 150 millons showing their confidence in Uruguay's dairy environment. Kind regards, Ricardo Inciarte 2008/3/14, FAO-Dairy-Outlook <FAO-Dairy-O utlook@fao.org>: ________________________________________ FAO-Dairy-Outlook is a service provided by the FAO Trade and Markets Division Visit our webpage: http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/15/162/index.html ________________________________________ These are very interesting comments, and I strongly encourage others to write. We have been updating our price series, prices (Oceania) especially for SMP have started a significant fall.. now down about 22% since their peak in July 2007. Other prices peaked late in 2007, and are down in February only about 5% or so.. How long high prices sustain is a huge question.... my guess is not long, but who am I? I think we know that while costs of production have risen with both transport/energy, and with higher feed grain prices.... that recent dairy product prices have been extraordinarily high, and out of line with costs and other food items. But such a peak, to the extent that such prices feed back to industry do create the potential for investment and structural change... this could affect smallholders, market size and relationships, and the entire industry, changings its face for ever... In economics we call such potential as supply "irreversibility" in the sense that once attaining new structures. Please keep up these discussions/testimonies from your countries. They shed useful light on just how this sector is being globalized so rapidly. Merritt -----Original Message----- From: FAO-Dairy-Outlook Sent: 13 March 2008 09:44 To: dairy-outlook-l@mailserv.fao.org Subject: 2 messages: Rising dairy prices - in Malawi ________________________________________ FAO-Dairy-Outlook is a service provided by the FAO Trade and Markets Division Visit our webpage: http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/15/162/index.html ________________________________________ Malawi is another country which is in the proper direction : the market is working OK and the signals are welcome by the smallholders, so they increase their production and income. Just as a comparison , in Uruguay the share of farmers on the shop price of pasterized milk is : 63% In soft cheeses is about : 36% Shop prices have gone up from june 2007 to february 2008, as follows : Fresh pasterized milk : from US$ 0,50 per liter to US$ 0,64 Soft cheeses : from US$ 4,30 per kilogram to US$ 11,40 Butter : from US$ 0,90 per 200 grams to US$ 1,67 60% of total milk received by milk plants are exported to aprox. 25 countries. Kind regards, Ricardo Inciarte ======================== Good Morning Brian Lewis's figures on the % of shop price that farmers receive from the liquid sector is interesting going from 50% prior to privatisation dropping to 22% and now rising to 32%. This pattern may have been encouraged by the growth in co-operatives. I know that he had a great influence on this success. Are there any figures on the pattern in other countries? Regards Jim Barnard ----- Original Message ----- From: FAO-Dairy-Outlook To: dairy-outlook-l@mailserv.fao.org Sent: Wednesday, March 12, 2008 10:02 AM Subject: FW: Rising dairy prices - in Malawi In Malawi, the outcome of rising world milk prices has had exactly the effect on the local dairy industry that smallholder farmers have dreamed of for years – and gives us all great hope for future growth and prosperity in the sector. We have gone from a situation barely a year ago of production quotas (because the southern part of the country was in surplus), to the point where milk collection is now 50% higher than last year, and the dairy processors are scrambling for all the milk that is available. Previously the processors in milk deficit regions of the country had imported powder for reconstitution, which of late costs nearly twice as much as local milk, so they now have little choice but to buy within country. Shop prices haven't changed significantly, so the processors have had to cut into their margins in order to cover the extra costs of moving milk around the country. Apart from the farm gate price increase (by 50% to US$0.32/lt), the proportion of the shop price received by the farmer has also risen to 32% (from 22% a year ago). This is the first change in the trend of decreasing farmer share since the local factories were privatized in the late 90's (at a time when farmers got 50% of the shop price). Another interesting aspect of these changes is how quickly smallholders have responded to the positive economic signals received through their monthly milk payments. Because smallholders often feed their herds well below their potential, there is a lot of scope for quick increases by doing things as simple as buying a few extra bags of animal feed at the end of the month when it is clearly profitable to do so. Looking back over history, relatively buoyant times like this have been rare, but have had a great effect in growing production to new levels. We see it as a challenge and a responsibility in poorer countries like ours to ensure that the biggest part of the new growth is in the smallholder sector, thereby maximizing the benefits to the families in greatest need. Best regards, Brian Lewis, Shire Highlands Milk Producers Assoc, Blantyre, Malawi |
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